Predictions for China's base station energy store lithium battery industry

China's energy storage lithium battery shipments in 2020 are 16GWh, of which electricity energy store is 6.6GWh, accounting for 41%, and communication base station energy storage is 7.4GWh, accounting for 46%. Others include energy storage lithium batteries for urban rail transit and industry.

In 2020, the shipment of lithium batteries for communication base stations in China fell short of expectations, mainly due to the sharp decline in demand for lithium batteries for overseas communication and the lower-than-expected number of newly built 5G base stations in China.

The overall price of lithium batteries for communication base stations is in a downward trend, the profitability of small and medium-sized enterprises has been greatly weakened, and the communication lithium battery industry is in a stage of adjustment preparation.

However, the demand for lithium batteries for communication base stations and UPS lithium batteries is clear in the future, and companies are preparing for the communication energy storage market in the expansion of production.

In 2021, China's communication base station energy store lithium battery market will usher in a demand turning point, and the main driving force will come from factors such as policies and new infrastructure. Through combing the communication base station energy store lithium battery industry, combined with survey data and information, make the following five predictions for the communication base station energy store lithium battery industry in 2021:

1. In 2020, the transformation of 5G base stations is in full swing, and the lead-acid batteries used in the original 4G base stations ushered in a wave of replacement of "lithium batteries instead of lead-acid batteries".

In 2021, the 5G base station will start from the "4G transformation" to the "new 5G" construction mode. The new 5G base station will bring about a rapid increase in the demand for lithium batteries. It is expected that the demand for lithium batteries in China's domestic communications will reach 8GWh in 2021 (excluding exports).

2. Due to the impact of COVID-19 in 2020, the construction of overseas base stations fell short of expectations. To a certain extent, the domestic base station lithium battery shipments in 2020 will be reduced.

It is expected that after the 2021 epidemic, countries will start to stimulate the economy with infrastructure and vigorously develop the communication industry, especially in Southeast Asia and South Asia, which are the most urgent to improve power and communication facilities.

It is expected that the overseas communications lithium battery market will resume its high-growth demand trend in 2021.

3. In recent years, with the rapid decline in the price of communication lithium batteries and the increase in domestic demand for data centers, the initial volume of UPS lithium batteries has been driven.

It is estimated that the penetration rate of UPS lithium batteries in China will increase from 3% to 8% in 2021.

4. In 2020, the winning price of base station lithium batteries is as low as 0.59 yuan/Wh, and the conventional UPS lithium battery pack (LFP) has also fallen to 0.73 yuan/Wh.

In foreign markets, under the strong competition from giants such as Panasonic and Samsung SDI, they were also forced to cut prices, with foreign prices falling by 5-10%.

Price is an important competitive factor for communication lithium batteries. It is expected that fierce price competition will continue in 2021, and the price of communication lithium batteries will further decline.

5. Communication lithium battery will implement modular design to improve operation efficiency and operation and maintenance efficiency.

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